A | WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。 一 前段时间，我和朋友蛋总、丁丁在日本妻笼宿徒步。 那天天气很好，阳光打在中山道石阶上，我们走在细细山道上，一边拍照，一边打趣这条路也太江户时代了，路标写得像俳句。 日本中山道/旅界实拍 走着走着，突然丁丁在前面喊，快看，这有个熊出没注意的牌子。 我们一拥而上，纷纷拍照合影。
B | 蛋总和我太太麦琪还摇了两下旁边挂着的熊铃，说这声音挺悦耳，应该能驱邪。 但铃声一响，再一走，队伍又逐渐安静了下来。 接着第二块熊出没注意牌子出现了，然后是第三块。 我们开始交换眼神，没人说话，但所有人都开始走得飞快。
C | 我边走边手贱查了下这条中山道上熊的分布情况，结果吓出一身汗。
D | 根据岐阜县自然保全课的官方资料，仅在我们走的这一片山系，北阿尔卑斯地域和白山·奥美浓地域两大熊群数量加起来就超过了3700头。 我还没来得及把这个新发现告诉小伙伴们，又在小红书刷到一条惊悚新闻。
E | 就在我们来之前那天，距离妻笼宿不到200公里的白川乡，一位西班牙游客在巴士站旁边拍照时，突然被熊扑倒袭击，伤倒地，现场一片混乱，景区立刻封闭了部分区域。
F | 白川乡可是联合国世界文化遗产，每年来访游客过百万，在全球自由行客群心中几乎是最安全的日本景区代表。 那天原本预计要花四个小时走完的山路，我们走了不到两小时，一路狂奔到终点。 等到了旅馆，我们定下神来复盘，才发现日本中部地区这边是小巫见大巫。 根据日本环境省最新通报，截至2025年9月底，全国共发生熊伤人事件99起，共造成108人受伤，死亡人数达到7人，创下日本有记录以来历史新高。 而这些攻击，多发生在以往被认为相对安全的东北、北海道地带。 出没时间也并不局限在清晨黄昏，不少是在中午、下午，甚至接近景区入口或公交站附近。
G | 仅今年10月上旬，日本东北地区就连续爆出一周三起死亡事件。 有的是老年人上山采蘑菇，疑似被熊攻击身亡，有的是警方通报发现断头和疑似熊分食抓痕，尸体残破不堪，还有的被拖入林中多日后才被发现。 另有网友分享秋田县一带的“熊出没地图”。
H | 黄色的是“出没注意”，红色是“已目击熊体”，密密麻麻的标记几乎盖住了整个城市边缘，像是下了一场图钉雨，全年目击已经超过3700次。 这些新闻被我们在旅馆里刷到时，全桌人都安静了三秒。 原来我们一路上开玩笑说想看野生动物，却差点成为野生动物新闻背景板。 麦琪放下茶杯悠悠说了一句：我们这是捡了条命吧。
I | 二 今年日本的熊，确实多得有点反常。 一位日本生态学者原话是，“今年全国熊出现频率，还有接近人类区域的距离、攻击次数，全线拉高”。 另据多家媒体报道，食物短缺可能影响日本熊的冬眠习性。 北海道猎友会札幌支部“熊类防治队”队长玉木康雄提到，以往到了12月下旬，所有的熊都已进入冬眠状态，今年却异常到无法预测。 “如果今年熊无法储存足够的皮下脂肪就进入冬眠，它的睡眠就会变浅，可能在途中醒来，成为半梦半醒的熊。
J | ” 这些睡眠不足的熊，胃口会更大，脾气会更暴躁，方向感也更差。 而北海道，偏偏又是中国游客冬季最集中的目的地之一。 尤其是滑雪客。
K | 每年1-2月，大量中国大陆自由行游客奔向二世谷、富良野、旭川，一边泡温泉，一边追雪花牛奶、泡芙和帝王蟹。
L | 而现在，滑雪之外，可能还要考虑避熊路线。 小红书上，有人发出了灵魂一问：“明年1月底还去不去北海道？” 评论区里，一位网友的神评是：“我一定是疯了，还以为你在说股市。” 更多人，却在真实后怕地分享自己在日本哪里曾经撞见熊，或者擦身而过的经历。
M | 事实上，熊增多了背后，食物短缺确实是个大问题。 熊的主食很固定。 每年秋天，日本各地山林里的山毛榉和橡果，是它们准备过冬的核心能量来源，储存得好，能安全冬眠，储存不够，只能出山找吃的。 今年偏偏就撞上了个大范围歉收年，果子挂得少，掉得早，熊们还没来得及囤满脂肪，就被秋风赶出山林。 饿着肚子的熊，是最不讲分寸的熊。 它们开始往村镇边缘活动，寻找垃圾、果园、甚至宠物的饲料桶，这些在人类眼里无关紧要的残羹冷炙，在熊眼里全是生的希望。 尤其很多日本家庭喜欢种点柿子、苹果、栗子，有视频拍到熊翻过篱笆、站在院子里摘柿子的画面，表情就像超市刚开门的顾客。
N | 如果只是饿，也许还没那么严重，今年更麻烦的是，气温迟迟不降，山林比往年暖和，熊也就迟迟不睡。 能量没存够，环境还暖着，熊就一直在外面晃。 而且，晃得越来越远。 这几年，日本乡村人口锐减，山林管理松散，很多地方的山地已经成了半野化带，没有人活动，也没有围栏，熊走进来没任何的阻力。 以前熊怕人，现在人少了，熊反而觉得人类区域更像它的新栖息地。 日本很多地方对垃圾分类极其讲究，却也因此容易出现食物垃圾暴露的小漏洞。
o | 有研究指出，城市边缘的投放点、无人看管的饲料桶，正在变成熊的觅食训练营。 它们闻着味道过来，尝到甜头后，还会原路返回。 熊学不会说谢谢，但它学得会路线，一旦习惯了往人类区域找食物，就会频繁造访，甚至带崽同行。 这几年，熊妈妈带着熊宝宝一起下山觅食的画面，开始频繁出现在日本监控画面里。 而这，才是日本生态专家最担心的：熊的行为，正在发生代际转变。 三 10月15日，日本观光厅公布了一组数据：今年7到9月，访日外国游客的消费总额达到了2.131万亿日元，同比增长11.1%。虽然人均花销涨幅有所放缓，但因为人实在太多，总体盘子还是涨了。 前九个月，访日游客人数突破了3000万，用的是历史上最快的速度。 说明日本，依然是东亚这个区域里最稳定的旅游磁场。
p | 尤其对于中国游客来说，签证方便，航班密集，吃得习惯，还有购物清单写满了药妆、吹风机和手冲壶。 但问题是，山里突然多出这么多熊，谁心里不犯嘀咕？ 一位小红书网友说出了很多人心声：“七月那个大地震预言都没吓退我，看完一圈熊出没新闻，真的不敢去了。地震可能不会来，但熊是真的会把人吃了。” 情绪是会扩散的，尤其在社交媒体上。 眼下最受波及的，其实并不止北海道、秋田、中山道这类自然风光度假目的地，即将到来的日本赏枫、徒步、滑雪路线，游客心里都会反复权衡下风险值。 毕竟以前这些是滤镜里的治愈系，现在成了高风险的代名词。 日本政府也意识到了这个问题。 从去年开始，北海道就重启了上世纪90年代起暂停的“春季猎熊计划”。 地方猎友会、熊类研究会、林业联合体联合上山，希望通过一定规模的捕猎，控制熊的数量和迁徙。 此外，虽然有不少中国游客被这些新闻劝退，但看现在的签证数据、搜索趋势、航班订票量，真正能被彻底吓跑的人，还是少数。 日本惠那山/旅界实拍 绝大多数人，只是从毫无防备，变成了先查查再决定。
q | 那万一真的撞上熊，怎么办？ 山林经验人士的建议，其实也很务实。 最关键的是一件事：冷静。 看见熊别跑，别叫，也别直视它的眼睛。 熊视你逃跑，会触发它的追逐本能，你越跑，它越兴奋。更重要的是，你也跑不过它。 所以，正确做法，是根据距离调整策略。 如果太近，就学会冷静躺平，至少能成为下一条热搜新闻。
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